Best Picture - the nominees
American Hustle: I pretty much detested this movie and its inclusion, while not surprising, is still - to my mind - a disgrace. The detestable David O. Russell reduces this period of shameful American activity of entrapment and sweeping vilification of Arabs to little more than a bargain basement Scorsese-influenced trifle overflowing with caricatures rather than characters.
Captain Phillips: God knows I love Paul Greengrass, but I thought this movie was super dull and frankly, I much prefer the really great film A Hijacking which is much better made and deals with similar subject matter WITHOUT stupid American propaganda elements.
Dallas Buyers Club: God knows I WANTED to love this movie and while Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto are never less than engaging, the movie still resembles a crock o' feel-good for Liberals to think they're getting a dose of what's good for them.
Gravity: There's really not much to enjoy here. Yeah, some of the visual F/X are dazzling, but 2001 still beats the crap out of this in the F/X department. There's also a whack of annoying dialogue, some of it bordering on sickening. There are, however, some nice shots of Sandra Bullock floating around in her skin-tight astronaut undies. The latter is probably, for some, worth the price of admission. I, for one, will not take away that pleasure from anyone.
Her: Easily one of the more sickening movies of the year.
Nebraska: This is a solid movie. Is it great? Far from it.
Philomena: This is a surprisingly good movie, but not something worthy of "best" consideration.
12 Years a Slave: Total Oscar-bait and due to McQueen's sledgehammer direction, a major slog to get through.
The Wolf of Wall Street: A genuinely terrific Scorsese picture that treats Wall Street chicanery with the same aplomb and in a similar fashion as any of his great crime pictures.
Nine movies nominated for Best Picture seems ludicrous. Granted, in its early days, the Academy allowed more than five nominations, but the recent decision to allow up to ten nominees makes the horse race in this category a lot less interesting than when the numbers stay down as they did for so many years.
As for the above nominees, the only movie I'd personally consider amongst this over-stuffed category is The Wolf of Wall Street. Movies that deserve to be in this list, but remaining ignored include The Lone Ranger, Inside Llewyn Davis, Fruitvale Station and Child of God. These four, plus The Wolf of Wall Street would be a total class act, but whoever said the Oscars were a class act?
Based on the sorry-aas list of nominees:
What SHOULD win: The Wolf of Wall Street
What WILL win: 12 Years a Slave
AND THE WINNER WAS: 12 Years a Slave
So far, 1/24
Best Actor in a Leading Role - the nominees
Christian Bale (American Hustle) - Good performance, but he's had better roles than this.
Bruce Dern (Nebraska) - A fine performance in an okay movie. A decent sentimental choice.
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) - Leo rocks big time in this!!!
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) - A genuinely great performance wasted in a not-so-good picture.
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) - He's always worth watching, but man, this picture blows chunks.
I can live with these nominations even though I think Oscar Isaac for Inside Llewyn Davis, Toni Servillo in The Great Beauty, Child of God's Scott Haze, Robert Redford in All is Lost, Michael B. Jordan for Fruitvale Station, Ali Suliman for The Attack and Gabriel Arcand in Le démantèlement ALL, to varying degrees got hosed by their non-nominations.
What SHOULD win: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
What MIGHT win: Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
What WILL win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Going against conventional wisdom did NOT pay off for me here in my prognostications.
Best Actress in a Leading Role - the nominees
Amy Adams (American Hustle) - She's fine here, but the movie stinks and she's done better work elsewhere.
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) - I pretty much can't stand her, but Woody got probably the best performance out of her that she's ever delivered (or will ever deliver).
Sandra Bullock (Gravity) - As retarded as The Blind Side was, I thought she was pretty great in that picture. Here, she's cute as all get-out, but pretty annoying anyway.
Judi Dench (Philomena) - No great shakes here, but a solid bit o' Dench.
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) - Ditto.
This was a pretty woeful year for this category, but there were a lot of great female performances in non-American films like Mira Barkhammer in We Are The Best and Katharine Isabelle in American Mary blow all of these out of the water.
What SHOULD win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
What WILL win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
So far 2/24
Best Actor in a Supporting Role - the nominees
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) - Abdi was genuinely brilliant and managed to be far more sympathetic a figure than Tom Hanks in this generally anti-desperate-acts-of-poor-people piece of crap.
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle) - Sorry. This guy is just sickening.
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) - He shore whups real purty-like.
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) - Hill continues to dazzle and this was a lovely performance.
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) - I'm in the minority here, it's a great performance, but the role as written feels like Oscar bait engineered to make Liberals feel good.
What SHOULD win: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
What WILL win: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
So far 3/24
Best Actress in a Supporting Role - the nominees
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) - Solid, non-showy performance.
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) - Less sickening than she usually is.
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) - Genuinely great performance in a cruddy, overrated movie.
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) - A solid enough performance in an okay piece o' Southern Gothic.
June Squibb (Nebraska) - This performance knocked me on my ass and I'd love to see her win.
Who SHOULD win: June Squibb (Nebraska)
Who WILL win: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Blew this prediction bigtime.
Best Animated Feature - the nominees
The Croods (Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco, Kristine Belson)
Despicable Me 2 (Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin, Chris Meledandri)
Ernest & Celestine (Benjamin Renner, Didier Brunner)
Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho)
The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki)
I hated all of these except for Frozen and the Miyazaki and since he's planning to retire, I assume…
What SHOULD win: The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki)
What WILL win: The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho)
Reminder to self: Don't go for retiring Japanese Masters of Cinema.
Best Cinematography - the nominees
The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
Prisoners (Roger A. Deakins)
What SHOULD win: Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel) or Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
What WILL win: Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
So far, 4/24
Best Costume Design - the nominees
American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
The Grandmaster (William Chang Suk Ping)
The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
The Invisible Woman (Michael O'Connor)
12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)
What SHOULD win: 12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)
What WILL win: 12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)
AND THE WINNER WAS: The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
Best Directing - the nominees
American Hustle (David O. Russell)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)
Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
Let's be honest here: The Coen Brothers got royally hosed. So did James Franco and any number of fine directors who made far better movies than most of those nominated.
What SHOULD win: The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
What WILL win: Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)
So far, 5/24
Best Documentary Feature - the nominees
The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen)
Cutie and the Boxer (Zachary Heinzerling, Lydia Dean Pilcher)
Dirty Wars (Richard Rowley, Jeremy Scahill)
The Square (Jehane Noujaim, Karim Amer)
20 Feet from Stardom
Sarah Polley was hosed BIGTIME by not getting nominated here with her great documentary Stories We Tell, but this is a respectable enough list of nominees except for the loathsome 20 Feet From Stardom. While The Square has been getting some heat, there's only one picture here that deserves every imaginable award.
What SHOULD win: The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen)
What WILL win: The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen)
AND THE WINNER (UNFORTUNATELY) WAS - UGH! - 20 Feet from Stardom
Best Documentary Short
I haven't seen any of these nominees, but one of them is about a Holocaust survivor, so it stands the best chance of winning. Look for The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (Malcolm Clarke, Nicholas Reed) to collect Oscar.
AND THE WINNER WAS INDEED: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (Malcolm Clarke, Nicholas Reed)
So far 6/25
Best Film Editing - the nominees
American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, Alan Baumgarten)
Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
Dallas Buyers Club (John Mac McMurphy, Martin Pensa)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger)
12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)
The work here is - to varying degrees - competent, but Thelma got hosed by not getting nominated for The Wolf of Wall Street and I suspect the predictable winner amongst these nominees will be the undeserving of any accolades Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger).
AND THE WINNER WAS: Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger)
So far 7/24
Best Foreign Language Film - the nominees
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)
This is an excellent list of nominees. Quite a few foreign pictures got hosed for nominations, but ultimately, there's only one that stands a chance.
What SHOULD win: The Great Beauty (Italy)
What WILL win: The Great Beauty (Italy)
AND THE WINNER WAS: The Great Beauty (Italy)
So far 8/24
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - the nominees
Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews)
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Stephen Prouty)
The Lone Ranger (Joel Harlow, Gloria Pasqua-Casny)
I love that a Jackass film scores a nomination, but my personal pick would be The Lone Ranger, a terrific movie that got hosed for lack of nominations, lack of critical accolades, lack of decent box-office and a studio that could have done a way better job marketing it. Of course, the winner will go to the overrated precious load of B.S.
What SHOULD win: The Lone Ranger (Joel Harlow, Gloria Pasqua-Casny)
What WILL win: Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews)
So far 9/24
Best Original Score - the nominees
The Book Thief (John Williams)
Gravity (Steven Price)
Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett)
Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)
None of these nominees are much good, but if I had to pick . . .
What SHOULD win: Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
What WILL win: Gravity (Steven Price)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Gravity (Steven Price)
So far 10/24
Best Original Song - the nominees
Happy (Despicable Me 2)
Let It Go (Frozen)
The Moon Song (Her)
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
This has long been the worst category of them all.
What WILL win: The Moon Song (Her)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Let It Go (Frozen)
Best Production Design - the nominees
American Hustle (Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler)
Gravity (Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin, Joanne Woollard)
The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn)
Her (K.K. Barrett, Gene Serdena)
12 Years a Slave (Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker)
How The Lone Ranger got hosed here is beyond me.
What WILL win: Gravity (Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin, Joanne Woollard)
AND THE WINNER WAS: The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn)
Best Animated Short Film
I've seen none of the nominees, nor have I bothered to find out what any of them are about, so I'll pick a winner based solely on the title: The Oscar WILL go to: Feral (Daniel Sousa, Dan Golden)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Mr Hublot
Best Live Action Short Film
Again,I've seen none of the nominees, nor have I bothered to find out what any of them are about, so I'll pick a winner based solely on the country it appears to be from: The Oscar WILL go to: Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?) (Selma Vilhunen, Kirsikka Saari)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Helium
Best Sound Editing - the nominees
All Is Lost (Steve Boeddeker, Richard Hymns)
Captain Phillips (Oliver Tarney)
Gravity (Glenn Freemantle)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Brent Burge, Chris Ward)
Lone Survivor (Wylie Stateman)
What SHOULD win: All Is Lost (Steve Boeddeker, Richard Hymns)
What WILL win: Gravity (Glenn Freemantle)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Gravity (Glenn Freemantle)
So far 11/24
Best Sound Mixing - the nominees
Captain Phillips (Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith, Chris Munro)
Gravity (Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick, Tony Johnson)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland)
Lone Survivor (Andy Koyama, Beau Borders, David Brownlow)
What SHOULD win: Inside Llewyn Davis (Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland)
What WILL win: Gravity (Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Gravity (Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro)
So far 12/24
Best Visual Effects - the nominees
Gravity (Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, Eric Reynolds)
Iron Man 3 (Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash, Dan Sudick)
The Lone Ranger (Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams, John Frazier)
Star Trek Into Darkness (Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann, Burt Dalton)
What SHOULD win: The Lone Ranger (Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams, John Frazier)
What WILL win: Gravity (Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Gravity (Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould)
So far 13/24
Best Adapted Screenplay - the nominees
Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
What SHOULD win: The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
What WILL win: 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
AND THE WINNER WAS: 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
So far 14/24
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
What SHOULD win: Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
What WILL win: Her (Spike Jonze)
AND THE WINNER WAS: Her (Spike Jonze)
Well, there you have it - for what it's worth (and it ain't really worth much, but what else are you doing on a Sunday night?)
So I only guessed 15/24 correctly. All that means is never look to me for handicapping the Oscars. I'm also dreadful at Oscar trivia. I had to look all the winners up to actually do this tally on the morning after.
